What is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle?
Since 2012, Bitcoin's price has moved in a rhythm of roughly four years: a long, strong rise, a sharp peak, a crash of 75–85%, a quiet bottom, and then a slow recovery that turns into the next rise. People call it the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, and it lines up closely with an event built into Bitcoin itself — the halving.
Laid on top of each other, the cycles look remarkably alike. That is the point of this page: not to say what will happen, but to show plainly what has happened, so you can see why so many people talk about a crypto market cycle at all.
The halving, in one paragraph
New bitcoin are created as a reward to the miners who secure the network. Every 210,000 blocks — about every four years — that reward is cut in half. The halvings happened on 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016, 11 May 2020 and 20 April 2024. The next is expected around April 2028; the exact date depends on how fast blocks arrive, so no one can give it to the day.
Fewer new coins each day does not by itself set the price. But every halving so far has been followed, within about a year and a half, by a new all-time high.
Every Bitcoin cycle, peak to bottom
Measured on weekly closing prices (which read a little lower at the tops and higher at the bottoms than the famous intraday numbers), the pattern looks like this:
- 2012 halving → a peak around December 2013 (about $1,150 intraday, $965 on a weekly close), then a fall of roughly 78% into early 2015.
- 2016 halving → a peak in December 2017 (about $19,800 intraday, $19,250 weekly), then about −83% into December 2018 (around $3,200).
- 2020 halving → a peak in November 2021 (about $69,000 intraday, $65,000 weekly), then about −75% into November 2022 (around $16,000).
- 2024 halving → a peak around October 2025 (about $123,500 on a weekly close), then a fall of about half into mid-2026 (around $59,500). Bitcoin was near $81,000 in late September 2026.
Two things stand out. The time from halving to peak has been about 12 to 18 months each time. And each peak has been higher than the one before, while each crash has been a little shallower. Four cycles is still a small sample, which is why none of this is a law.
Why the chart uses a log scale
On a normal price chart, Bitcoin going from $200 to $1,000 is invisible next to $20,000 to $100,000. A logarithmic (log) chart spaces prices by percentage instead: every doubling is the same height. It is the only fair way to compare a 2013 cycle with a 2021 cycle, and it is why a Bitcoin log chart is the standard way to look at its whole history.
How altcoins follow Bitcoin — only harder
Most other coins, or altcoins, rise and fall in the same windows as Bitcoin, but with bigger swings in both directions. On this page XRP, Hedera (HBAR) and Sui (SUI) are the examples. HBAR peaked near $0.44 in November 2021, alongside Bitcoin, and later fell more than 90%. XRP's weekly close peaked near $3.45 in July 2025. SUI, which only started trading in 2023, peaked near $5.24 in January 2025.
The so-called altcoin season — a stretch when smaller coins outrun Bitcoin — has tended to arrive late in the up-leg, close to the top, which is also why it so often ends badly for people who arrive last.
What could happen by 2030 — scenarios, not a forecast
The page projects the pattern forward to the end of 2030, and it draws everything after today dotted and faded on purpose. These are scenarios built by replaying the shape of past cycles with shrinking returns — not a Bitcoin price prediction.
- If history repeats: the rhythm continues — a recovery, the next halving around 2028, a rise to a new peak window, then a fall — with each peak and each bottom higher than the last, as has happened every cycle so far.
- A weaker version: the same rhythm with much smaller gains, as returns keep shrinking.
- A harsher version: deeper, longer falls than recent cycles.
- The pattern breaks: exchange-traded funds, institutions and regulation change how Bitcoin trades, and the four-year rhythm fades or disappears.
Any of these can happen, or none of them. The timing is uncertain as well as the price: the page shows possible peak and bottom windows spanning months, not dates.
What the cycle does and doesn't tell you
It tells you where the market has been, how violent its swings are, and that buying near euphoric tops has repeatedly been painful. It does not tell you what will happen next. Crypto can fall further than any past cycle, and an individual coin can go to zero. If you take one thing from this page, let it be the size of the drawdowns — and only ever put in what you can afford to lose.
Questions people ask
What is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle?
It is the pattern, seen since 2012, of Bitcoin rising strongly after each halving, peaking roughly 12–18 months later, crashing 75–85%, and bottoming about a year after the peak. It has repeated four times, which is a small sample, so it is a pattern rather than a rule.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next halving happens at block 1,050,000, expected around April 2028. The exact date depends on how quickly blocks are mined, so any date given in advance is an estimate.
When does Bitcoin usually peak after a halving?
In past cycles the peak came about 12 to 18 months after the halving: late 2013, December 2017, November 2021 and around October 2025. Past timing does not guarantee future timing.
How much has Bitcoin fallen in bear markets?
Measured on weekly closes, the falls from peak to bottom were about 78% (2013–2015), 83% (2017–2018), 75% (2021–2022), and about 50% in the drop that followed the 2025 peak. Intraday falls were deeper.
What will Bitcoin be worth in 2030?
No one knows. The page shows speculative scenarios — from 'history repeats' to 'the pattern breaks' — drawn from past cycle shapes. They are illustrations of what past patterns would imply, not a price prediction.
Do altcoins follow the Bitcoin cycle?
Mostly, yes. Coins like XRP, HBAR and SUI have tended to rise and fall in the same windows as Bitcoin, with larger gains in rallies and deeper losses in crashes — often over 90% for smaller coins.
Why use a log chart for Bitcoin?
A log chart spaces prices by percentage change, so a move from $100 to $200 looks as big as one from $50,000 to $100,000. That makes cycles from different years comparable on one chart.
Can the 4-year cycle stop working?
Yes. Bitcoin ETFs, large institutional holders, regulation and the shrinking size of each new halving could all weaken the rhythm. That is why the page includes a 'pattern breaks' scenario.